Due to the continuous escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the "throat" of global energy - the Strait of Hormuz - has once again fallen into a de facto closed state. A large number of ships have been stranded and navigation has been blocked. The international crude oil market has experienced severe fluctuations, with spot prices reaching new historical highs and futures prices continuing to rise. The global energy supply chain is facing severe challenges. 

Geopolitical tensions have escalated, and the control of the strait has entered a new phase. 

On April 9th local time, US President Trump posted a message on social media, clearly warning Iran not to charge fees for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating a tough stance. The commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' naval forces responded the next day, stating that during the temporary ceasefire, both sides had recognized that the control of the Strait of Hormuz had entered a new stage, and the navigation order of the strait had not returned to normal even after the ceasefire. 

The current situation of passage through the strait is extremely severe. Approximately 3,200 vessels are stranded west of the strait, including 800 oil tankers and cargo ships. Although there are 768 vessels operating in the gulf area, the "dark navigation" phenomenon where navigation is restricted and the ship automatic identification system is turned off persists, completely disrupting the normal shipping order. 

The gap between spot and futures prices is significant, and oil prices have reached a new historical high. 

Geopolitical conflicts directly triggered panic in the oil market, and the price trend showed extreme divergence. After the market opened on April 10th, the prices of international gold futures and spot traded down and turned negative, while the main contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures continued to rise, and funds rushed into safe-haven crude oil assets. 

The panic sentiment in the spot market has reached its peak. European and Asian refiners are frantically purchasing spot crude oil from the North Sea. The benchmark price of North Sea spot crude oil, Forties Blend, has soared to nearly 147 US dollars per barrel, surpassing the historical peak before the 2008 financial crisis. At the same time, the June futures contract of Brent crude oil was priced at 97 US dollars per barrel, and the price difference between futures and spot prices widened to over 30 US dollars. The rare divergence highlights the deep panic in the market regarding the shortage of physical crude oil. 

As of the close on April 9th, the May light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $97.87 per barrel, with an increase of 3.66%; the June Brent crude oil futures on the London Mercantile Exchange closed at $95.92 per barrel, with an increase of 1.23%. The futures market continued to strengthen. 

Supply has plummeted sharply, and the global production gap is difficult to fill. 

A Goldman Sachs report indicates that the export volume of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz has been continuously declining, currently standing at only 8% of the normal level. After the ceasefire agreement, the number of ships passing through has been very few, and most of them are related to Iran. The supply of crude oil in the Middle East is almost "cut off". 

Guangda Securities pointed out that the closure of the strait has forced the oil-producing countries in the Middle East to rapidly fill their storage tanks and forced a reduction in production. As of March 26th, the combined supply from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates has decreased by approximately 8 million barrels per day, while the global available spare production capacity is only 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day. The gap between supply and demand has sharply widened. 

What is even more alarming is that the long-term closure of oil fields will cause permanent damage to production capacity. Even if there is a short-term ceasefire, the supply will be difficult to recover quickly. The tightening of global crude oil supply is already a certainty. 

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