The combined effect of the blockade of shipping lanes and the disruption of supplies is rapidly spreading to the international crude oil market, exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand. On one hand, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a loss of over 98% of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, with a daily supply gap of 17.7 million barrels. On the other hand, if the risk of the Red Sea shipping lane is further escalated, the alternative export routes of countries like Saudi Arabia will also be blocked, and the global crude oil supply gap will further widen. 

Energy agencies and consulting firms have issued widespread warnings that if the conflict persists for several weeks, even if the situation improves later, the supply recovery will be difficult to follow quickly. Global crude oil inventories will be significantly depleted. The price of Brent crude oil has already exceeded $115 per barrel, up by more than 60% compared to pre-war levels. Some institutions predict that if the Mandeb Strait is completely blocked, the oil price may rise by another $20 per barrel. 

What is even more alarming is that the impact of oil prices has extended beyond the energy sector and has spread throughout the entire petrochemical industry through basic chemical raw materials such as naphtha. Naphtha, as the core intermediate product in crude oil refining, is the main raw material for producing petrochemical products such as PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol, and these products are the upstream basis for synthetic fibers like polyester, nylon, and spandex. With the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the price of naphtha has also soared simultaneously, directly pushing up the costs of intermediate products such as PTA and PX. As of March 2026, the price of PTA has risen by nearly 20% within 10 days, and the price of polyester POY has soared from 7,000 yuan per ton to 9,600 yuan per ton, an increase of over 35%, and the spot price of polyester staple fiber has risen by 25%. 

Data from supply chain analysis company Altana shows that the Gulf region handles the transportation of $733 billion worth of petrochemical raw materials, intermediates and finished products globally. These products will further influence approximately $3.8 trillion worth of downstream goods, creating a significant "multiplier effect" - a single increase in cost will be magnified throughout the supply chain and eventually reach the end market.

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