Taking into account the geopolitical situation and the laws of the energy market, the industry has identified three major trends of international oil prices. These will directly reshape the cost structure of the textile industry and have a crucial impact on the operations of end textile manufacturers and garment producers. 

First, oil prices are fluctuating within a range, and the industry remains in a weakly stable state. If the low-intensity friction between the US and Iran persists and negotiations remain deadlocked without a resolution, the geopolitical risk premium will persist, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Polyester and polyester filament are both in a sideways trend, the textile industry maintains the "high costs and weak demand" status quo, enterprises mainly focus on maintaining production and reducing inventory, and the industry lacks upward momentum. 

Secondly, oil prices have soared significantly, and the industry is experiencing a price increase trend. If the US-Iran negotiations completely break down, or if the supply of crude oil in the Middle East shrinks and the inventory reaches its limit, oil prices will enter an upward trend. The price increase will be passed on step by step to the entire value chain of PTA, polyester filament, etc., leading to an increase in production costs for fabrics and home textiles. Downstream enterprises will be passively faced with a situation where both raw material and order costs rise. 

Thirdly, the sharp decline in oil prices has alleviated the industry's pressure. Only when the US and Iran reach a settlement, the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is restored, and the energy supply anxiety is resolved, will the oil price decline. At that time, the cost pressure in the textile industry will also ease. However, at present, the confrontation between the two sides is severe and mutual trust is lacking. The probability of a short-term settlement is extremely low, and the positive impact of cost reduction is unlikely to materialize. 

Overall, the geopolitical standoff between the US and Iran will become the norm for the medium to long term, the high-oscillating oil price pattern is difficult to reverse, and the high-cost operation of textile raw materials may become a regular occurrence. 

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