The National Retail Federation said on Monday that a possible strike at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in January, combined with President-elect Trump's planned tariff increases, is expected to drive volume growth at U.S. container ports through early 2025.

"Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing everything they can to avoid the impact of either scenario as much as possible," warned Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the NRF.

The urgency stems from contentious negotiations between the International Longshore Workers Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX), with the current contract extension set to expire on January 15 and the two sides at an impasse over automation. That deadline, combined with Trump's plan to implement the tariffs after he takes office on Jan. 20, has created a perfect storm for U.S. ports.

Industry expert Ben Hackett highlighted automation as a key sticking point in the port talks, noting that "shippers are moving as much cargo as they can" ahead of potential disruptions.

The impact is already evident in the numbers. In October, US ports handled 2.25 million TEUs, up 9.3% from a year earlier despite a slight monthly decline. The December forecast shows stronger growth at 2.14 million TEU, up 14.3 percent from last year.

Looking ahead, the National Retail Federation has significantly revised up its forecasts in recent months. In January 2025, 2.2 million TEU is expected to be processed, an increase of 12% year-on-year, while the March forecast showed an increase of 12.7%.

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